Chapter 11: Spatial Development Strategy

11.1 In this chapter, we consider the quantity and distribution of development within the Greater Exeter area, drawing strongly on the work in the Sustainability Appraisal Report which we are also asking your views on as part of this consultation.

11.2 The chapter first discusses how many homes the GESP should provide considering:

• The government requirements for housing provision
• The need for flexibility or ‘headroom’ in the housing number
• The number of sites which may be required to meet this need

11.3 This revisits the contents of draft policy GESP16 included in Chapter 7 of this

11.4 The chapter then goes on to consider the potential approach for distributing growth across the Greater Exeter area, suggesting an overarching spatial development strategy (with map) and

11.5 The suggested spatial development strategy primarily focuses strategic developments at public transport nodes and corridors and at the main settlements with strong economic Development would take different forms, including significant urban intensification, urban extensions and new garden communities.

11.6 Site options which accord with the suggested spatial development strategy have been grouped into four strategic growth areas. The individual site options falling within the strategic growth areas are detailed within Chapter

Number of Homes

11.7 The government has committed to fixing the broken housing market and a major element of that is to increase the rate at which new homes are built in England to 300,000 a In order to achieve this they have introduced a specific and rigid formula for deciding the local Objectively Assessed Need for homes in each council area. This is considered by the government to be the minimum number of homes that development plan documents should plan for.

Applying the formula to the Greater Exeter councils leads to a minimum target of 2,663 homes per year, or 53,260 homes over the 20 year period of the plan. 

11.8 Research suggests that this number of new homes could improve housing affordability by about 20% (all other things being equal), bringing many more people into potential home The average house currently costs about 9.3 times the average wage, beyond the reach of large numbers of new families, first time buyers and other non- home owners. The provision of this number of new homes is forecast to bring the affordability ratio down to 7.3 – still not ideal but a much more likely proposition for many new households.

11.9 The Sustainability Appraisal considers options for higher growth rates and their potential environmental, social and economic impact. It is not considered that lower rates of growth are reasonable alternatives given the requirements of the National Planning Policy Framework.

Headroom in Housing Numbers

11.10 It is a legal requirement that the GESP meets various tests of Two of these can be applied specifically to thinking about housing numbers. They are that a plan is:

• Positively prepared … as a minimum, seeks to meet the area’s objectively assessed needs …
• Effective – deliverable over the plan period

11.11 In terms of delivering new homes, these tests mean that plans cannot just allocate sites with a capacity equal to the housing need; they have to ensure that enough homes are The key method for ensuring that this occurs is what we term “headroom”. This built-in flexibility allows for a variety of potential uncertainties such as allocations or commitments being started late, built out slowly or even not built at all.

11.12 The inclusion of large numbers of new homes within Exeter on complex brownfield sites is considered within Chapter These include sites published in the City Council’s Liveable Exeter document. They have major transport and other sustainability advantages. However, a number of these major sites are in many different ownerships, have existing businesses and other uses within them and require a lot of investment to make them happen. We therefore suggest that approximately a 20% “headroom” should be applied to the GESP housing   target to reflect these risks to delivery.

11.13 This does not change the homes target, but increases the number of allocations needed to meet that It means that we are more likely to be able to show a five year supply of housing land going forward (a national policy requirement) and it will also help to meet the Housing Delivery Test required by the National Planning Policy Framework.

Therefore the overall need for development sites would include 120% of housing needs:

53,260 homes X 120% = 63,912 homes

Existing Housing Sites

11.14 Existing planning commitments (that is, unbuilt homes with planning permission and sites in local plans) amount to about 33,390 homes. These provide about half of the homes required to meet the need above, and reduce the need for GESP or local plan updates to allocate additional

How Many Houses on GESP Allocations?

11.15 Taking account of housing need, headroom and planning commitments, there is a need for 30,522 homes on additional

Housing need including headroom – Commitments = Housing on GESP allocations

63,912 homes – 33,390 homes = 30,522 homes

11.16 These calculations are the basis for draft policy GESP16 Housing Target and Distribution (some of the figures have been rounded). To fulfil the housing requirement set out in this chapter, we suggest that the GESP needs to allocate land to build about 30,500 homes during the period of the plan (2020 – 2040).

Spatial Development Strategy for the GESP

11.17 Using the draft GESP vision proposed in Chapter 4, we have identified key themes that should be acknowledged in the GESP spatial development strategy:

• Protecting key environmental assets
• Recognising the carbon impact of choices over development distribution (including travel and access to low carbon solutions for heating and power)
• Identifying accessible and well connected development locations to create the homes and jobs we need, which reduce the need to travel, enabling healthy living and reducing our carbon impact
• Seeking increased densities in our urban areas and around transport hubs, strengthening our sustainable transport choice for existing and new residents with access to local facilities, service and infrastructure
• Connecting settlements by IT and other infrastructure, reducing the need to travel and minimising grey infrastructure requirements
• Ensuring growth has a clear purpose leading to individual character

11.18 Much work has been done looking at the opportunities in the Greater Exeter area to achieve the above points. Alternative ‘distribution scenarios’ have also been considered which have informed our suggested approach, detailed later in this chapter.

11.19 To achieve growth that brings the success factors needed to create great places of the future, we consider that the GESP spatial development strategy should focus:

• On brownfield and greenfield land in Exeter and other main towns where there is an easily accessible range of jobs, services, transport facilities and the potential to enhance these factors
• In new or expanded settlements of scale on key transport corridors, particularly the rail corridors which extend out from Exeter, ideally where cycling is also a feasible option to key jobs and services

11.20 To achieve the draft GESP vision and to bring benefits to our new and existing communities it is fundamental we have the right transport strategy embedded within our spatial development strategy. Our emerging transport strategy is detailed in Section B, Chapter 8, Movement and Communication. Following this consultation, strategic sites will be identified in the next version of the GESP and at this point the GESP transport strategy will be further refined and more detail provided.

Spatial Development Strategy Map

11.21 Figure 12.1 has been prepared to show conceptually the spatial development strategy, identifying four strategic growth areas. These areas provide potential to achieve the draft GESP vision of ‘an accessible and networked city region of linked and distinct communities’. The four growth areas are ‘Central’, ‘North’, ‘South’ and ‘East’, discussed in more detail below. Each area has a possible role to play in the spatial development strategy for the area, although the scale of development and the level of infrastructure investment necessary in each will vary. Site options are identified in chapter 12 within the growth areas. The site options accord with the suggested GESP spatial development strategy, each one offering different individual strengths and weaknesses.

Strategic Growth Areas

Central

11.22 This large area includes Exeter and its immediate surrounding land, the “West End of East Devon” and the Tarka Line railway corridor as far as Crediton. This is the immediate economic hinterland of Exeter, providing the economic hub of the Greater Exeter area’s economy at the focal point of the area’s transport corridor. Much of this central area has seen very substantial planned growth and investment. It contains the growing new town of Cranbrook, the Science Park and Sky Park economic hotspots (designated as an Enterprise Zone) and a number of major urban extensions to the city. It is a sustainable transport hotspot with 11 existing railway stations and 3 new ones planned, excellent bus and cycle provision and an emerging cycle and car club infrastructure. Major institutions like the University of Exeter, the Meteorological (Met) Office and Exeter Airport provide continued economic impetus and the demand for new homes and economic investment in the area is high. There is significant brownfield regeneration potential for high quality sustainable development and locations for further urban extensions and new settlements with good sustainability credentials. However, there are environmental sensitivities to consider, including the high quality historic environment and the internationally important Exe Estuary, Dawlish Warren and Pebblebed Heaths, which are potentially vulnerable to visitor pressure. High quality development, green infrastructure and habitat management will be key mitigation requirements.

11.23 There are 26 potential site options to consider in this area, identified in Chapter 12. We consider this area has real opportunity for new homes and jobs and is likely to be the focus for new transport investment. It has the potential for high levels of sustainable transport use given the density of development and existing rail and other provision in the area. Many of the site options in Exeter are brownfield and their redevelopment would act to enhance the city’s economy and attractiveness. A number of urban extensions are also considered. To the west, the Tarka Railway Line provides some rail-based development opportunities while there is the potential for new settlement opportunities to the east of the city beyond the Clyst valley.

North

11.24 Towards the northern boundary of the Greater Exeter area, the two market towns of Tiverton and Cullompton provide the potential for growth in areas with existing employment. The existing mainline station at Tiverton Parkway combines with two motorway junctions to give excellent access and there are fewer national or international environmental sensitivities than in many other locations around the Greater Exeter area. Proposals within the Mid Devon Local Plan Review include significant economic and housing expansion, with a new tourist and leisure hub at Junction 27 and the initial phases of the Culm Garden Village, to the east of Cullompton. Improvements to the motorway junctions and a new railway station at Cullompton are key infrastructure requirements.

11.25 In the following chapter there are 3 options for major development within this growth area.

South

11.26 Near the southern extent of the Greater Exeter areas, the wider Newton Abbot, Kingsteignton and Kingskerswell area is a significant employment and housing location with good transport connectivity and there is potential to continue to develop its role with additional homes and employment. This will support continued growth in the southern part of the Exeter travel to work area, which is well-connected by rail to Exeter and various market towns. There are also good rail and road links with the adjoining urban area of Torbay which have been enhanced by the recent completion of the South Devon Highway.

11.27 4 potential strategic options within this area are described in chapter 12.

East

11.28 The Waterloo Line provides a mainline rail service from Exeter to London, linking to a number of towns and villages within the eastern part of the Greater Exeter area. The market towns of Honiton and Axminster have economic and housing potential, while settlements with existing stations may provide the opportunity for strategic expansion. Plans to improve speed and frequency along the Waterloo Line would enhance the sustainability of proposals in this area. There are 6 potential site options consulted upon within the east area.

Smaller Sites and Local Plans

11.29 The earlier section on numbers of new homes explained how there is a need to ensure that a minimum of 53,260 new homes are built to meet our defined housing need. Taking account of the need for headroom (explained earlier) and allowing for existing planning commitments, the allocations in plans will need to have a capacity to deliver about 30,500 homes.

11.30 Within that overall number, there is a role for both GESP and future local plan reviews to allocate sites for the development of new homes. We have to decide how many should be allocated in the GESP and how many should be left to the local plans. Essentially, this is a choice between the development of large strategic sites that can provide much of their own infrastructure and development of a large number of smaller sites, within and next to towns and villages.

11.31 In Chapter 7 Homes, draft policy GESP16: Housing Target and Distribution, we propose that about 18,500 of the homes are provided on strategic scale GESP allocations, with 12,000 to be allocated on smaller sites via local plan reviews and also potentially in neighbourhood development plans. These plans can consider in more detail the housing needs and potential of the towns and villages in the Greater Exeter area, taking into account the overall strategy of the GESP. We consider this to be a fair distribution between the two kinds of sites, allowing for choice in type and scale of site to come forward in local plans, including the national requirement that 10% of homes are on small sites. Towns and villages without allocations identified through the GESP may be considered for development through the local plan process.

Alternative Development Distribution Scenarios considered

11.32 The Sustainability Appraisal has considered seven potential development distribution scenarios for the delivery of growth in the These are:

• Scenario 1: Proportionate growth of all settlements in the settlement hierarchy
• Scenario 2: Exeter and major town urban intensification
• Scenario 3: Mainly rural distribution
• Scenario 4: Public transport infrastructure corridors and hubs
• Scenario 5: Concentrate on areas with the least affordable housing
• Scenario 6: Locate development away from protected international wildlife sites
• Scenario 7: Market-led

11.33 Full details of the scenarios are included in the Sustainability Appraisal Report, however brief descriptions are provided here. Note that, apart from the market–led approach scenario, as a general rule the scenarios do not propose strategic development in Areas of Outstanding Natural Beauty. National policy recommends to avoid major development within these

11.34 Scenario 1: Proportionate growth of all settlements in the settlement hierarchy

Existing plans contain a settlement hierarchy, which is a broad analysis of the relative size of each settlement, together with their economic and service role. In this way, a broad understanding of the extent to which each settlement is appropriate for development can be understood. There are 75 places defined within that hierarchy within existing local plans. One option would be for the GESP to recognise the historic and market basis for this existing pattern, and to follow it closely in distributing growth. This would guide new growth to those 75 defined settlements, roughly proportionate to their scale and function, effectively a continuation of the existing local plan strategies. At the end of the plan, the settlement pattern would be largely unchanged, with most of the growth being located at the larger settlements but the smaller rural settlements also receiving new development – each settlement would roughly grow by a similar proportion (25% – 30% depending on the overall level of growth).

11.35 Scenario 2: Exeter and major town urban intensification

At the larger end of the settlement hierarchy are a number of main places, with a range of facilities, services and jobs, and generally good public transport provision. They comprise 13 settlements including Exeter and the larger towns like Newton Abbot, Exmouth and Tiverton. By concentrating growth at these places, new homes and jobs would be closely related and concentrations of services like city and town centres would be supported. Under this approach the potential for previously developed land would be maximised. The population would become more urban-focused over time, with significant expansion of all the main settlements, and much lower growth in the smaller towns and villages.

11.36 Scenario 3: Mainly rural distribution

At the opposite end of the distribution spectrum from Scenario 2, a rural focus would place the majority of the growth in the smaller settlements (villages and small towns) but limit growth in the main towns and Exeter. This would require very significant growth in each of these smaller settlements (in the order of 200-300 homes at each, depending on the overall level of growth). There would also be the potential for a number of new villages of approximately 1500 homes depending on local circumstances. Impacts on Areas of Outstanding Natural Beauty would need to be avoided. This scenarios would be likely to cause a significant increase in car travel due to the challenges of serving rural communities with public transport.

11.37 Scenario 4: Public transport infrastructure corridors and hubs

Through the GESP there is the opportunity to move beyond the previous hierarchy-based approach to development distribution, and to consider a more radical approach to locating new growth. A key opportunity is the existing public transport network, in particular the extensive rail system. Public transport is focused at the main settlements (particularly Exeter) and on rail and bus service extending out from the city which link a number of existing towns and villages. This scenario would provide for growth on or close to these locations, reflecting the benefits of sustainable travel modes. It would maximise opportunities to encourage more sustainable forms of travel by giving the highest proportion of residents a choice of transport mode to the key service and job locations. The potential to enhance these corridors further through investment such as new rail stations or increased rail service frequency would enhance this potential. Development may be in the form of new brownfield sites, new settlements or major urban extensions.

11.38 Scenario 5: Concentrate on areas with the least affordable housing

Reflecting the objective that new homes are intended to improve affordability, this scenario examines the potential for concentrating the new homes in those places with the worst affordability/highest house prices. In accordance with national policy and the approach to the other scenarios, this alternative avoids significant development in the Areas of Outstanding Natural Beauty. It should be noted that this is a significant constraint on the ability of the strategy to achieve its objective, since the Areas of Outstanding Natural Beauty are among the highest priced areas. The strategy which emerges from this would guide development to locations around Exeter and a secondary area between Newton Abbot and the Teignbridge coast. Given the generally higher values in rural areas, some expansion of villages across the plan area would also be expected.

11.39 Scenario 6: Locate development away from protected international wildlife sites

The Natura 2000 wildlife sites are highly protected by law. There are a number in and around the Greater Exeter area, with four of them covered by a mitigation strategy to stop impact from current housing growth. The Exe Estuary SPA, Dawlish Warren SAC and East Devon Pebblebed Heaths (both a SPA and SAC), grouped around an area south and south east of Exeter, are vulnerable to recreational pressure from new homes within 10 km (including the whole city of Exeter). The South Hams bat complex, based around a number of colonies south west of Exeter, with Newton Abbot towards the core, can be affected by urbanisation, particularly the bat feeding and flying areas. Avoiding these areas could maximise the protection of these important habitats. However, by avoiding impacts on these specific internationally important sites this distribution strategy may result in pressures on other international wildlife sites, which are more peripheral such as the Culm Grasslands SAC, Dartmoor SAC, South Dartmoor Woods SAC, Sidmouth to West Bay SAC, River Axe SAC, and Beer Quarry and Caves SAC.

11.40 Growth would mainly be located north of Exeter, within the least populated part of the plan area, and involve major expansion of existing towns and villages and potentially a number of new It would be challenging to provide attractive public transport to some of these areas and therefore it is likely that the traffic and climate change impacts of this approach would be significant, particularly in Exeter. It would also provide little development in Exeter itself which is an area of high demand.

11.41 Scenario 7: Market-led

Using the GESP call for sites undertaken in 2017, this distribution strategy would take a market-driven approach only, targeting those areas where there is already a known interest in delivering development. It is considered that this scenario would meet the National Planning Policy Framework requirements for housing sites to be available and deliverable and would likely require the minimum level of planning policy intervention of any of the considered scenarios. For it to be considered a true market-led approach, it was deemed appropriate to consider sites within areas excluded in other scenarios such as the Areas of Outstanding Natural Beauty.

11.42 The majority of growth in this scenario would be reasonably well-located to existing jobs, services and public transport in Exeter and the larger towns, thereby minimising the need for those residents to travel by the private car. However there could be significant impacts on key environmental site including Areas of Outstanding Natural Beauty and protected international wildlife sites.

Analysis of development distribution scenarios and how they have informed the suggested spatial development strategy for the GESP

11.43 Each distribution scenario examined has potential positives and negatives. The spatial development strategy pursued in the GESP needs to accord with the draft GESP vision and seek to deliver the best possible outcomes for the provision of new homes, jobs and infrastructure for existing and future generations, while also protecting and enhancing the environment.

11.44 The full analysis of the alternative distribution scenarios is contained in the Sustainability Appraisal Report.

11.45 The scenarios that predominantly propose development in smaller, rural settlements strongly correlate with more car-use, due to longer travel distances and limited public transport provision (i.e. scenarios 3 and 6 and to a lesser extent 5 and 7). The climate change impacts and traffic generated by these scenarios is undesirable. The more dispersed scenarios are also subject to more expensive social and physical infrastructure and uncertain economic potential, making balanced and sustainable development in these areas much more difficult to achieve. Protection of our internationally protected sites (part of scenario 6) will need to occur whatever development strategy is pursued, ensured through our Habitats Regulations Assessment.

11.46 The remaining scenarios have more to commend them strategically as the basis for a Greater Exeter spatial development strategy. However, scenarios 1 and 2 (concentrating only on expanding the existing main settlements) are limited in their ability to deliver the housing growth required in the Greater Exeter area, due to local environmental and infrastructure constraints. Therefore, contributions from well-located new settlements are considered necessary. Proximity to jobs and services and links into existing transport corridors, as identified in scenario 4, are fundamental to the success of such proposals and have the potential to bring many sustainability benefits. Across these scenarios there are considerable benefits in making major efforts to recycle urban land for new housing, alongside focusing on well-located sites where there is known interest from the landowners.

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